Market conditions and marketing logistics. Conjuncture - what is it? Changes in market conditions What does market conditions mean?

The market environment determines the competitiveness of goods and services of enterprises.

Market conditions — ϶ᴛᴏ:

• a certain relationship between supply and demand, both for individual goods and their groups, and for commodity and money supply generally;
• the specific economic situation prevailing on the market in at the moment time or some period of time and reflecting the current relationship between supply and demand;
• a set of conditions that determine the market situation;
• result of interaction various factors(economic, social, natural), determining at any given moment in time the position of the company in the market;
• the state of the economy at a given time, determined by changes in various economic indicators.

The conditions of a particular market should be considered taking into account the interaction and mutual influence with other markets. Note that each market is closely related to the general economic situation in the country and region. Therefore, the analysis of a specific market should be based on an assessment of the general economic situation as a whole.

Market research involves analysis of:

• market indicators - market capacity, market saturation level;
• market shares of enterprises;
• indicators of demand for goods;
• indicators material production showing the supply of goods in markets;

Market statistics

Market conditions— ϶ᴛᴏ a set of conditions (traits) that determine the market situation at a certain point in time.

Favorable (high) conditions- characterized by a balanced market, stable or growing sales volume, equilibrium prices

Unfavorable (low) conditions- characterized by signs of market imbalance, absence or decrease in demand, sharp price fluctuations, sales crises, and shortages of goods.

There are the following market characteristics: buoyant market, developing market, stable market, stagnating market, regressing market, etc. There is no clear boundary between these definitions, but, nevertheless, each state has specific quantitative characteristics of market indicators.

Based on all of the above, we come to the conclusion that specialists and experts, when assessing market conditions, rely on the so-called market indicators: prices, inventory, indicators business activity, which can be both absolute and relative values. Moreover, it is impossible to judge the market only by any one indicator. They must be taken into account as a whole. For example, an increase in the number of transactions without an increase in sales volume does not indicate a revival of the market, but indicates exclusively the involvement of small firms in the market process. Likewise, shortages of goods (high demand) or growth inventory, even if accompanying an increase in production volume, will not be a positive characteristic market economy, but they talk about an impending crisis in sales and inflation.

Indicators of market conditions include:

• the ratio of supply and demand for goods (services);
• market development trends;
• level of market stability or volatility;
• the scale of market operations and the degree of business activity;
• level of commercial risk;
• the strength and scope of competition;
• finding the market in a certain phase of the economic or seasonal cycle.

Since all these market characteristics are quantifiable, they make them the subject of statistical study.

Subject of market statistics— ϶ᴛᴏ mass processes and phenomena that determine a specific market situation, amenable to quantitative and qualitative assessment.

Subjects of market research may be commercial market structures(their marketing divisions), government bodies (including statistical ones), public organizations, scientific institutions.

• Collection and processing of market information.
• Characteristics of the market scale.
• Assessment and analysis of the main market proportions.
• Identification of market development trends.
• Analysis of fluctuations, seasonality and cyclicality of market development.
• Assessing regional market differences.
• Assessment of business activity.
• Commercial risk assessment.
• Assessment of the degree of market monopolization and intensity of competition.

Market indicators

To implement the objectives of market conditions, a comprehensive system of indicators has been developed, including:

• volume, structure and dynamics of supply (production);
• supply potential (production and raw materials);
• elasticity of supply.

• volume, dynamics and degree of satisfaction of demand;
• consumer potential and market capacity;
• elasticity of demand.

• supply and demand relationships;
• the relationship between markets for means of production and markets for consumer goods;
• trade turnover structures;
• market distribution between manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers;
• distribution of the sellers' market by type of ownership;
• structure of buyers according to various consumer characteristics (income level, age, etc.);
• regional market structure.

• growth rates and increases in sales volumes, prices, inventories, investments, profits;
• parameters of trends in sales volumes, prices, inventories, investments, profits.

• coefficients of variation of sales volumes, prices and inventories in time and space;
• parameters of models of seasonality and cyclicality of market development.

• regional variations in the ratio of supply and demand and other market proportions;
• regional variations in the level of demand (per capita) and other basic market parameters.

• composition, occupancy and dynamics of the order portfolio;
• number, size, frequency and dynamics of transactions;
• workload of production and sales capacities.

• investment risk;
• risk of making marketing decisions;
• risk of market fluctuations.

• the number of firms in the market for each product, their distribution by ownership, organizational forms and specialization;
• distribution of firms by size of production, sales and sales;
• level of privatization (number of privatized enterprises, their organizational forms and share in the total market volume);
• market division (grouping of firms by their size (small, medium and large) and by their share in sales volumes)

Proportionality— ϶ᴛᴏ the optimal relationship between the various elements of the market, ensuring its normal progressive development.

When analyzing market proportions, statistics uses the following tools: balance sheet method, relative values ​​of structure and coordination, comparative indices, elasticity coefficients, beta coefficients of multifactor models, graphical method.

Don't forget that the most important indicator proportionality of the market for goods and services should be considered the relationship between supply and demand, which predetermines the development of other categories of the market and its social and economic efficiency. The proportions of supply and demand are determined both for the market of goods and services as a whole, and regionally, for individual goods and services, and for various consumer groups. It is important to note that one of the ways to measure this proportion for the entire set of goods and services is the balance of supply and demand, in which purchasing funds (demand) are compared with commodity resources and service potential (supply). The balance thus identified serves as a characteristic of market imbalance and demonstrates either the presence of a shortage or a sales crisis. The calculation scheme is presented in the table:

You can compare production volumes and growth rates (for individual products and for the industry as a whole) with current sales indicators, volumes and growth rates retail turnover with the volume and growth rate of cash income of the population.

The proportional dependence of supply and demand on the factors that determine their values ​​can be expressed by the elasticity coefficient, which will show the percentage change in demand or supply when the factor indicator increases by one percent.

The next important proportion of the market should be considered the ratio of means of production and consumer goods. It is worth noting that it is determined both statically and dynamically. It is worth saying that for this purpose the relative values ​​of structure and coordination can be used. A comparative index is also calculated to allow comparison of dynamic proportions. It is worth noting that it represents the ratio of the growth rates of two parts of a single whole and, in its essence, will be one of the options for calculating the lead coefficient.

Another important proportion is the ratio of sales of products and services among themselves, as well as between certain types products or services within each product group, etc.

Market conditions - this is the economic situation that has developed in a specific period of time in the market, which is characterized by the relationship between supply and demand, the price level, inventory and other economic indicators.
The study of market conditions includes the processing, analysis and systematization of quantitative indicators and qualitative information characterizing the development of the market in a given period of time. The choice of a system of indicators is determined by the goals of a particular study, for example, analysis of market development, analysis of the market situation over a certain period of time, changes in the technical and economic characteristics of production.
All market-shaping factors stimulating or restraining market development are classified into:
permanent - government regulation economy, scientific and technological progress, inflation, seasonality in the production and consumption of goods.
temporary - factors that periodically influence the situation (natural disasters, social conflicts, emergency situations).
cyclical - in the development of markets there may be a certain repeatability, cyclicality caused by seasonal changes in supply and demand, life cycles goods (introduction of goods to the market, growth, maturity, decline), shifts in the reproductive structure, fluctuations in investment activity, changes in economic policy.
non-cyclical - determine the specifics of production and sales of specific goods. The impact of various factors on the process of production and circulation of any product makes it possible to identify connections between ongoing events and the causes that caused them. It is the impact of various factors on the process of production and circulation of goods that is reflected in the movement of market conditions.
The task of market research is to determine the degree of influence of individual factors on the formation of the market situation at a certain point in time.
It is possible to solve this problem if we conduct a study of the situation taking into account new phenomena arising in the sphere of production. In order to imagine the situation happening on the market, it is not enough to know changes in prices, stock indices, stock movements and fluctuations in other indicators. The study of market conditions requires knowledge of the patterns of economic development and the interactions of markets in the reproduction process.
There are three levels of market research:
General economic - shows the state of the world economy or the economy of an individual country, a group of countries, emerging under the influence of market-forming factors, includes the following aspects: the economic potential of the economy and its elements (natural, industrial, labor, financial resources, scientific, educational and infrastructural potential, corporate structure, scale of concentration, specialization of production and sales, organizational forms of state regulation of the economy, etc.
Industry - shows the situation in a sector of the national or world economy.
Individual product - shows the position of an individual product on a global, national or regional market scale.
One of the main concepts of market research is the study of changes in the dynamics and price ratios. It is necessary to establish the reasons that caused the shift in the price level or structure. It is also necessary to analyze changes in production technology, conditions of consumption of goods, and take into account changes in wholesale and retail trade. Studying these changes helps to better understand the direction of price movements.
Methods for studying the conditions of any commodity market, economy or industry are developed on the basis of indicators that can help determine the direction of development of production, trade and finance in the future.
When studying market conditions, it is necessary to consider indicators that can quantify the various changes that occur in the economy of the industry under study.
The quantitative state of the situation can be assessed using the following groups of indicators:
1. The volume and dynamics of production as a whole, the amount of investment, the level of employment, the size of wages, order data. These are the so-called production indicators.
2. Effective demand, volumes of sales of goods on credit, data on retail and wholesale trade
3. Volumes, dynamics, geographical distribution of interregional relations, volumes of imports and exports, volumes of cargo transportation This group of indicators belongs to the group of interregional and foreign economic relations.
4. Monetary circulation. This group of assessments includes stock prices and other securities, interest rates, amounts of bank deposits, exchange rates.
The main characteristic of market conditions is the degree of balance between supply and demand. It manifests itself in the behavior of prices and the speed of turnover of goods. This assessment allows us to determine the type of situation.
Types of conditions are distinguished into:
Favorable - a balance between supply and demand is achieved, prices are kept at a stable level.
Unfavorable - demand lags behind supply, which leads to an increase in inventory, a slowdown in the turnover of goods, and difficulties in selling goods.

• Market conditions are the economic situation developing in the market and characterized by levels of supply and demand, market activity, prices, sales volumes, movements in interest rates, exchange rates, wages, dividends, as well as the dynamics of production and consumption.

  The market depends on the actions of factors, the main of which are: cash income of consumers, prices for goods, the ratio of supply and demand for securities, their profitability.

  Market conditions determine commercial value and the competitiveness of goods, the possibility and economic feasibility of purchase and sale, the choice of potential and actual exporting (importing) countries and counterparty firms, and the search for a favorable moment to enter the market, forms and methods of this entry.

  Changes in market conditions are determined primarily by the nature and level of development of the economy, but it is also influenced by factors such as the seasonal nature of production and consumption of a number of goods. All factors influencing market conditions are classified into permanent and temporary (according to the frequency of their impact), stimulating market development or restraining it. Market conditions are studied using indicators that make it possible to quantify the changes occurring in it and determine trends in their development. Such indicators are usually systematized into the following groups:

  production dynamics, main producing companies, emergence of new products, loading production capacity, dynamics of investments in this industry, the movement of the order portfolio, the dynamics of production costs, the number of employed and unemployed, the impact of strikes on the volume of production and the increase in the wage fund, the movement of securities prices, etc.;

  dynamics and structure of supply and demand, the impact of scientific and technological progress on the level of consumption and requirements for the quality of goods, dynamics of wholesale and retail, market capacity (the volume of goods sold on it during a certain time), the size of sales on credit, the movement of inventory, the range of goods, cost of living indices, etc.;

  state international trade, its dynamics, main exporting and importing countries, new forms and methods of trade and after-sales service, etc.;

  dynamics of wholesale prices in leading countries - producers and consumers of this product, export prices; the impact on prices of inflation, the dynamics of changes in prices for raw materials and energy, changes in exchange rates, the impact of monopolies on the price level, government regulation of pricing, etc.

  Objectives of the situation:

  market integration and differentiation, typologies of market situations and gradation of market conditions;

  characteristics of the scale (type) of the market;

  assessment and analysis of the main proportions of development;

  identification, analysis and forecasting of development trends and sustainability of market processes;

  assessment of cyclicality and seasonality of development;

  assessing rational differences;

  assessment of business activity;

  analysis of market monopolization and level of competition.

And supply, market activity, prices, sales volumes, movements in interest rates, exchange rates, wages, dividends, as well as the dynamics of production and consumption.

The market depends on the actions of factors, the main of which are: consumer cash income, commodity prices, the ratio of supply and demand for securities, their profitability.

Market conditions determine the commercial value and competitiveness of goods, the possibility and economic feasibility of purchase and sale, the choice of potential and actual exporting (importing) countries and counterparty firms, and the search for a favorable moment to enter the market, forms and methods of this entry.

Changes in market conditions are determined primarily by the nature and level of development of the economy, but it is also influenced by factors such as the seasonal nature of production and consumption of a number of goods. All factors influencing market conditions are classified into permanent and temporary (according to the frequency of their impact), stimulating market development or restraining it. Market conditions are studied using indicators that make it possible to quantify the changes occurring in it and determine trends in their development. Such indicators are usually systematized into the following groups:

• production dynamics, main producing firms, the emergence of new goods, production capacity utilization, the dynamics of investments in this industry, the movement of the order portfolio, the dynamics of production costs, the number of employed and unemployed, the impact of strikes on the volume of production and the increase in the wage fund, the movement of securities prices etc.;
• the dynamics and structure of supply and demand, the impact of scientific and technological progress on the level of consumption and quality requirements for goods, the dynamics of wholesale and retail trade, market capacity (the volume of goods sold on it during a certain time), the volume of sales on credit, the movement of inventory , range of goods, cost of living indices, etc.;
• the state of international trade, its dynamics, main exporting and importing countries, new forms and methods of trade and after-sales service, etc.;
• dynamics of wholesale prices in leading countries - producers and consumers of this product, export prices; impact on inflation prices, dynamics of changes in prices for raw materials and energy resources, changes in exchange rates, the impact of monopolies on price levels, government regulation of pricing, etc.

Objectives of the situation:

• market integration and differentiation, typologies of market situations and gradation of market conditions;
• characteristics of the scale (type) of the market;
• assessment and analysis of the main proportions of development;
• identification, analysis and forecasting of development trends and sustainability of market processes;
• assessment of cyclicality and seasonality of development;
• assessing rational differences;
• assessment of business activity;
• analysis of market monopolization and level of competition.

One of the indicators of the state of the economy is the so-called market conditions. Changes in market conditions are determined primarily by the nature and level of economic development. The concept of “conjuncture” in the broad sense of the word means a set of categories taken in their interrelation. In economic literature, the concept of market conditions is used in all cases when we're talking about about the nature of the situation developing in the foreign economic environment in relation to an economic entity at a given moment or period (Fig. 2.1).

Under foreign economic environment internal and foreign markets, in the conditions of development of which an economic entity operates. Market research involves the analysis and forecast of various economic, demographic, natural, political and other conditions and circumstances. They all represent market-shaping factors . They are divided into:

1) cyclical factors (determined by the cyclical development of the economy);

2) non-cyclical factors can obscure and change the effect of cyclical factors to the opposite:

a) permanent;

b) unstable (random).

The market research should be determined by the following principles :

¦ the inadmissibility of mechanisms for transferring trends identified in some markets to others, even similar ones;

¦ the need for constant and continuous monitoring of markets due to their dynamism;

¦ a certain sequence of market research. At the preliminary stage, research of their features; at the next stage, the necessary statistical information is accumulated, and then an analysis and forecast of the situation is carried out.

Economic conditions- this is a form of manifestation on the market of systemic factors and conditions of reproduction in their constant development and interaction, a specific historical aspect, expressed in a certain ratio of demand, supply and price dynamics. It is these factors that determine the state and dynamics of the market and are its central link.

Demand reflects the volume and structure of market needs for certain products that consumers are willing and able to buy at a certain price.

Demand is characterized by volume, consumer potential, structure, elasticity, and seasonality.

The volume of demand depends on the following factors:

¦ population size (N);

¦ the structure of the population's needs (Wi) – the share of costs for the consumption of the i-th product in the overall cost structure;

¦ level of consumer income (Z);

¦ prices for products (Р i – unit price of the i-th product).

Demand (D) calculated by formula :

To study the demand for food products, its classification is fundamentally important, since in agricultural sector A variety of products are produced and the factors determining supply and demand for them are different.

When studying demand, it is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of “consumption” and “demand”. Under consumption understand the physical volume of food actually consumed. M. Tracy defines demand as a consumer’s desire to purchase a certain amount of food products, backed by money.

The total demand for products at the consumption stage within the country must be identical to the sum of the demands of individual individuals.

Demand is taken into account in quantitative and cost forms.

Quantitatively demand can be measured in physical units. However, such an assessment for food products in general or their individual groups (for example, summing up plant or animal products) does not make sense. In this case, the dynamics of quantitative demand can be traced for aggregated products by determining the cost volume.

Value demand is the volume of products consumed multiplied by the current market price.

The essence of the law of demand is as follows: the higher the price of a product, the less demand for it from the buyer; and vice versa, the lower the price of a product, the higher the demand for it.

On the market food products the effect of the law of demand is limited by one of its features - immobility production process , that is, the impossibility of its rapid adaptation to changes in market conditions, since the source of resources for the production of food products, agriculture, is relatively inelastic depending on prices.

Based on the above, we distinguish next feature food market: in the system of supply-demand relations, the latter cannot be completely controlled by producers.

Main factors influencing demand, are:

¦ changes in prices for goods;

¦ change in cash income of the population;

¦ changing customer needs;

¦ change in the number of buyers;

¦ changes in consumer expectations.

Offer represents a set of certain products entering the markets. It shows the different quantities of agricultural products that rural commodity producers are willing and able to produce and offer for sale on the market at a specific price from a range of possible prices over a certain period of time.

Law of supply states: if the price of a product decreases, then the quantity of this product entering the market is reduced.

For the food market, this is not unconditional, since agricultural production depends on soil, climatic and meteorological conditions.

The amount of supply depends on the following factors :

¦ unit cost of goods;

¦ need for this product on the market during a certain period of time;

¦ level of competition in this industry;

¦ profitability of the product;

¦ tax policy and sales agent policy.

In food markets in our country, the two objects of market research are the economy and the commodity market. At the same time, in the concept of economic conditions, two relatively independent components are distinguished: general economic conditions and conditions of economic markets.

General economic conditions can be considered as a system that represents a structural unity, that is, a certain set of commodity market conditions with many differences between them. The combination of commodity market conditions as elements into a general economic situation is characterized by both general features and specific features inherent only to it.

Thus, only the interaction and interrelation of these features and characteristics of the general and the part determine the nature of the formation and development of general economic and commodity conditions.

Characteristics general economic and commodity conditions are:

1) variability and frequent fluctuations;

2) discrepancy in time between the direction and dynamics of various indicators of the market situation;

3) exceptional inconsistency, which is expressed in the fact that different indicators of the market situation at the same time may indicate the presence of contradictory trends - rise and fall (an increase in demand for food products in the event of unfavorable natural and climatic conditions does not cause an increase in supply and increase in profits);

4) the unity of opposites that develops in the process of reproduction of social capital, despite the exceptional inconsistency.

Important task of analyzing market conditions consists in establishing the significance of the influence of individual factors on its formation, in identifying the leading factors that determine the situation at each individual moment and in the near future.

Analysis of the food market conditions includes five aspects :

¦ production analysis;

¦ demand analysis;

¦ consumption analysis;

¦ inventory analysis;

¦ analysis of export and import;

¦ price analysis.

When analyzing production special attention is paid to the influence of scientific and technical progress on the manufacture of a specific type of product, the quality of goods, and the costs of scientific research. The dynamics of production volumes of goods are also studied, factors influencing production are established, and the prospects for its development are studied.

When analyzing demand many factors of its formation are taken into account: economic (income, prices), socio-psychological (prestige, advertising), social (social environment, standard of living, traditions), physiological (life support). Supply is formed under the influence of scientific and technological progress, economic incentives, social needs and demand. The dynamics of demand and supply of goods are analyzed in general and in terms of consumer groups.

When analyzing consumption the main factors influencing the market capacity are studied, the situation in the sphere of consumption of this type of product is examined and the degree of monopolization, forms and methods of sales and their dynamics are determined. Quantitative relationship between the level of consumption of individual products and levels of income and prices, the degree of market saturation is revealed through budget surveys of various social groups of the population.

Inventory analysis involves research into inventory policies of both manufacturers and sellers, as well as consumers. Available information on movement, cost, established regulatory framework for reserves and working capital for any of the used grades of materials allows the state to quickly manage material and financial flows within a year. This information helps solve the following set of problems:

¦ identify deficient material resources;

¦ identify material resources for which excess reserves have been formed and can be sold;

¦ assess the availability of reserves and their structure;

¦ determine what needs to be ordered and when, in what volume;

¦ determine the need for financial resources.

When analyzing the export and import of goods the state of international trade, its dynamics, the basic structure of exports and imports are examined; new forms and methods of trade and after-sales service are considered. Issues of customs tariff and currency systems are also being studied, and a forecast is being made for the development of exports and imports of goods.

When analyzing prices , first of all, the dynamics of wholesale prices for food products is studied largest producers, the impact on prices of inflation, government regulation of pricing of food products and raw materials for their production, and other reasons for price changes.

Conjuncture- a situation characterized by the relationship between the demand for a product and its availability on the market. An increase in demand for food products means an improvement in the market situation, while an oversaturation of the market with these goods means a deterioration.

Food market conditions represents the current economic situation, including the relationship between the demand for food products and their supply on the market, the dynamics of prices for food products and raw materials for their production, the movement of inventory and other economic indicators.

Signs of a developed food market are: satisfied demand, organizational association of manufacturers, intermediaries and suppliers, activation of consumer demand, flexibility of the system of relations in the production-consumption chain, a combination of state non-intervention in economic activity market subjects with its regulation at the regional and national levels.

Relative uncertainty and uncontrollability of production processes create many problems for studying food market conditions. It is necessary to take into account the fact that it is impossible to quickly stop or start agricultural production. It takes a long time to change the production of certain types of goods. For example, fruit plantations are created many years before they begin to bear fruit. During this period, the market situation may change. The expansion of milk production is also a slow process. Even a significant reduction in production is slow and difficult. Once investments have been made in buildings, equipment and livestock, changes are neither easy nor cheap.

Inability to quickly adapt agriculture to changing conditions creates a high-risk element in the food market. Changes in consumer demand can lead to the fact that a large amount of raw materials and commodity resources intended for production will remain unclaimed. In turn, high prices due to a shortage of goods can maintain consumer market of this product until it arrives in the required volume.

The decline in the level of income of the population, the rise in prices for basic types of food, which is not adequate to the increase in wages, largely determine the purchasing power and level of consumption of food products.

Food security still remains one of the most difficult problems, the solution of which requires the adoption of a set of measures to ensure the effective development of the agro-industrial complex as the main source of the formation of the food stock, ensuring the physical and economic availability of food.

The physical accessibility of food should be guaranteed by ensuring the availability of trading network the quantity and range of food required by the population in accordance with accepted standards.

Economic affordability of food, characterizing the possibility of purchasing various social groups population of food products must be guaranteed by maintaining equilibrium in the level of food prices and incomes.

1. What factors are market-shaping?

2. On what principles is market research based?

3. Define the economic situation.

4. Name the factors influencing changes in demand.

5. Name the factors influencing changes in supply.

6. Name the objects and subjects of market research.

7. Name the aspects of analyzing the food market conditions.

Task 1. Identify typical enterprises in the group farms, if necessary, carry out their ranking (order).

Execution method:

The problem of selecting a typical enterprise from a group of their specialization can be solved within acceptable constraints. From many i-x objects ( i=1, 2,…, n), each of which is characterized by a variety of j-x parameters ( j=1, 2,…, m), you should select the one parameters a which are closest to their average values ​​for the entire group. Information is given by a matrix ij and the arithmetic mean is calculated:

And the standard deviation of the typing parameters:

The task of selecting a typical object according to all parameters comes down to determining the confidence limits of the intervals from which it should not go actual values i-th object:

where is the lower limit of the interval;

upper limit of the interval.

Proportionality factor value k is the same for all given sampling parameters and is determined from the expression where f(k)– integral normalized Laplace function;

Each of the parameters a is checked to be within the specified confidence interval. If the parameter falls within this interval, then a (+) sign is placed next to it; if not, a (-) sign is placed next to it. In practical calculations, a situation may arise when several i-x rows in the matrix have all signs (+), i.e., any of these objects can be selected as typical. Then it is checked for the minimum sum of the ratios of the absolute deviations of the typing parameters to their average values:

Initial data:

The selection of the most typical object from the candidates is carried out according to the results of the calculation table 2.1. Is object selection rank 1 assigned to the row that has the lowest value? ratios of absolute deviations. Objects are ranked according to increasing total deviation values.

Note: Calculated data is in italics.

Based on the data obtained, the enterprises under study are classified.